WARSAW (Reuters) – While Time Warner is frontrunner in the sale of blue-chip Polish media company TVN, it could end in a split, with one of TVN's founding families picking up web portal Onet.pl, leaving the TV assets to the U.S. group.
Three independent market sources told Reuters Time Warner was favorite to land the 56-percent stake in TVN being sold by the ITI Group.
Earlier this year, sources told Reuters that ITI had approached five possible buyers, with Bertelsmann-owned RTL Group, News Corp's Fox, Vivendi and Discovery Communications mentioned as joining Time Warner in the race.
Media reports have also mentioned several private equity funds, along with Sweden's Modern Times Group and Silvio Berlusconi's Mediaset, as possible contenders for the $1-billion stake.
"The stake is meant for a strategic partner, with private equity put off by the possible price," one source familiar with the matter told Reuters.
"The group would be a perfect match for Time Warner, with Bertelsmann and Berlusconi as other, but for the time being less likely, bidders."
A second source said binding bids were expected to be placed this month.
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The strategic winner would either settle for the whole TVN group, including Poland's top web portal Onet.pl and the No.3 pay-TV platform 'n' -- which is set to end 2011 in the black on the core profit level -- or just take the TV part.
"Lukasz Wejchert (TVN deputy head and chief of online) is keen on holding on to Onet," the first source said.
"If he secures financing, Time Warner could take TVN, while Vivendi would take 'n', which they could add to their Cyfra+ (Poland's No.2 pay-TV platform)," a third source added.
Neither ITI nor Lukasz Wejchert would comment.
Wejchert is a son of the late Jan Wejchert, one of TVN's co-founders and ITI chief, whose sudden death in 2009 was one of the triggers for the sale, which JP Morgan and Nomura are managing for ITI.
Back in the 1990s Jan Wejchert, Mariusz Walter and Bruno Valsangiacomo forged TVN as ITI's founding shareholders.
The group is now one of Poland's top two private broadcasters, with shows such as the Polish versions of Dancing with the Stars and X Factor, as well as a number of its own formats.
Some market watchers have speculated that ITI may be under pressure to sell because of its heavy debt burden, which together with Jan Wejchert's death has weakened ITI's resolve to keep its key asset.
Analysts says the debt pressure could mean ITI prices the TVN stake at lower multiples than Time Warner's latest stake buy of TVN's regional rival, Central European Media Enterprises (CME), which was sold at 13 times the company's targeted 2011 core earnings.
Last month, ITI reiterated its commitment to the sale of its TVN chunk, despite the broadcaster's share price decline to a two-year low, as disappointing earnings added to a general market slump.
(Additional reporting by Agnieszka Barteczko; Editing by Will Waterman)
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